This discussion evaluates the potential cumulative effects of the proposed MSHCP and alternatives on biological resources; land use; housing, population, and employment; public services; and transportation. In particular, the analysis focuses on the cumulative effects of the proposed MSHCP with the regional growth forecasts.

5.1.1 Biological Resources

Cumulative biological impacts are defined as those impacts resulting from development within the MSHCP Plan Area as a result of build out of the County’s General Plan and Cities within western Riverside County consistent with SCAG’s regional growth projections. The life span of the MSHCP is proposed to be 75 years, and the MSHCP includes consideration of growth and development within the MSHCP Plan Area for build out of the County’s General Plan and Cities within western Riverside County in accordance with SCAG’s regional growth projections.

As stated in Section 4.1.2 Assumptions of this document, the cumulative biological impacts are defined as those impacts resulting from development within the MSHCP Plan Area as a result of build out of the Cities and County’s General Plans and consistent with SCAG’s projections for regional growth. The term of the MSHCP is proposed to be 75 years, and the MSHCP includes consideration of SCAG’s projected growth and development within the MSHCP Plan Area for build out of the General Plans. This analysis examines all of the alternatives under a General Plan build out scenario for the County’s and Cities’ General Plans, consistent with the SCAG regional growth projections. Thus, impact conclusions in Section 4.1 and those presented below are based on similar analysis assumptions. Therefore, the analysis of cumulative biological impacts of the Proposed Action and alternatives is assumed to be incorporated into the analysis of the alternatives themselves, since cumulative growth including build out of the General Plans consistent with SCAG’s regional growth projections is considered in the MSHCP and the alternatives.

Implementation of the MSHCP and Covered Projects will not result in a cumulative adverse effect, either directly or through habitat modifications, on any of the Covered Species, including the 31 species that are currently listed as threatened or endangered and the one species that is currently proposed for listing. Implementation of the MSHCP will benefit the Covered Species by preserving their habitat in order to address their life cycle needs. Thus, based on the features of the Plan itself, impacts to Covered Species are mitigated below a level of significance.

However, implementation of the MSHCP will result in cumulatively significant impacts on the Non-Covered Species because the issuance of incidental take permits will remove an impediment to development outside of the MSHCP Conservation Area. Non-Covered Species would receive little or no protection outside the reserves under existing ordinances and regulations.

The Plan will not cause adverse cumulative effects related to the reduction of sensitive vegetation communities within the Plan Area; rather, the Plan is designed to preserve sufficient acreage of the sensitive vegetation communities present in western Riverside County. Similarly, the Plan will not cause adverse cumulative effects related to interference with the movement of any native resident or migratory fish or wildlife species or obstruction of genetic flow for the identified Planning Species. Part of the purpose and goals of the MSHCP is to use regional planning efforts to assemble a reserve that will preserve contiguous blocks of habitat in large enough areas to ensure that the reserve will allow movement of species and flow of genetic information.

The MSHCP will not cause adverse cumulative impacts by conflicting with the provisions of any adopted Habitat Conservation Plan, Natural Communities Conservation Plan or other approved local, regional, or State habitat conservation plan either within or outside of the Plan area. Rather, the MSHCP has been written specifically to complement existing HCPs, such as the Stephens’ kangaroo rat long-term HCP.

The MSHCP will cause adverse significant cumulative effects associated with the introduction of land use within an area immediately adjacent to Conservation Areas. Cumulative effects associated with the proposed take authorization would involve direct loss of habitat and species associated with ground disturbance in take authorized areas as development occurs in accordance with projected growth. Cumulative indirect effects would occur to species and habitats within the MSHCP Conservation Area and would be associated with development of proposed land uses and activities in take authorized areas in proximity to the MSHCP Conservation Area. Indirect effects primarily result from adverse “edge effects" and may be short-term indirect effects related to construction or long-term indirect effects associated with development or land use practices in proximity to conserved habitat areas. Cumulative indirect impacts resulting from construction activities include dust, noise, and general human presence that may temporarily disrupt species and habitat vitality and construction-related soil erosion and runoff. An edge effect is defined as a change in the “conditions or species composition within an otherwise uniform habitat as one approaches a boundary with a different habitat (Ricklefs 1993)." Edge effects at the boundary between natural lands and human-occupied lands (“urban edge effects") arise due to human-related intrusions such as lighting, noise, invasive species, exotic predators (dogs, cats, and opossums), hunting, trapping, off-road activities, dumping, and other forms of recreation and disturbance. Although some species are in some ways unaffected by edges [e.g., reproductive output of the rufous-crowned sparrow (Morrison and Bolger 2002), distribution of arthropod species (Bolger et al. 2000)] or even show preferences for edges (e.g., indigo buntings and northern cardinals in Woodward et al. 2001), human-induced edge effects are generally unfavorable to native species and are considered cumulative as edge increases throughout the landscape.

Cumulative significant indirect impacts associated with edge effects and increased development pressure outside the conservation areas established by the proposed MSHCP and other MSHCPs or HCPs proposed in areas adjacent to western Riverside County are considered cumulatively significant are addressed in the provisions of Section 6.1.4 of the Draft MSHCP, and were taken into account when developing the reserve requirements of the proposed MSHCP. Edge effects will result as development occurs in proximity to habitat; however, the proposed MSHCP contains provisions that will reduce the adverse impacts associated with edge effects. Furthermore, the MSHCP does not authorize development, although it does provide take authorization for Covered Species. The MSHCP would not directly cause edge effects, but it would dictate where such effects could occur through the reserve assembly process. Thus, cumulative indirect impacts associated with edge effects are considered less than significant.

5.1.2 Agriculture and Extractive Resources

Agricultural Resources

Under the proposed MSHCP and each of the alternatives, varying numbers of acres of State-designated Prime, Unique, or Statewide Important farmland are located within the Conservation Area. As previously stated, the designation of farmland as Prime, Unique, or State Important does not necessarily indicate that such land is utilized for agricultural production. The precise boundaries of the reserve are not fixed and the Criteria Area covers thousands of acres. Due to these facts and the fact that future development is dependent upon future market conditions, it is not possible to determine the extent to which implementation of the proposed MSHCP might result in the conversion (to nonagricultural uses) of specific parcels that are designated as Prime, Unique, or Statewide Important farmland on maps prepared by the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program. Likewise, it is not possible to determine whether implementation of the proposed MSHCP would conflict with existing agricultural designations or a Williamson Act contract on specific parcels of land within the MSHCP Plan Area.

Overall, however, the proposed MSHCP will permit the continuation of existing agricultural operations within the Conservation Area. Additionally, the proposed MSHCP has a mechanism to allow up to 10,000 acres of new agricultural land within the MSHCP Criteria Area, which, if implemented, will offset potential impacts to agricultural resources that may result from implementation of the MSHCP. Development outside the limits of the MSHCP Criteria Area may contribute to the conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural uses. However, the MSHCP expressly permits existing agriculture and, if the provisions for new agricultural land are implemented, also has opportunities for new agricultural operations. Therefore, no cumulatively significant impact to agricultural resources will occur.

Mineral Resources

Throughout western Riverside County, approximately 19,500 acres have been identified as State-designated Mineral Resource Zones (MRZs). MRZs are known mineral resources that are of value to the region and the residents of the State. Active mineral extraction areas will not be incorporated into the Conservation Area. Under the Proposed MSHCP, land designated as MRZs (but with no permitted mineral extraction operation) will be incorporated into the Conservation Area. The loss of any portion of such an MRZ, when taken with similar losses that may result from the implementation of other projects (such as from assembling the existing reserves) represents a cumulatively significant and unavoidable impact. The MSHCP will not have any other significant direct or indirect cumulative impacts on mineral resources, because implementation of the MSHCP will not result in the loss of a locally important mineral resource recovery site, as delineated on a General Plan or other land use plan.

5.1.3 Housing, Population, and Employment

Implementation of the Proposed Action or any of the alternatives will not change any regional projections, displace persons or dwelling units, nor will it exacerbate the jobs-to-housing imbalance within western Riverside County. Thus, the MSHCP will not have significant cumulative impacts in any of these impact categories.

With development being shifted from the Conservation Area to areas that will not be conserved, increased urbanization or intensification of land use may occur in areas presently not subject to these kinds of development pressures. This would occur both inside and outside the MSHCP Plan Area. Such land use intensification may result in community character impacts. While the Proposed Action and to some degree the other MSHCP alternatives, could shift development to outlying areas or encourage increases in development intensity in areas not currently subject to substantial development pressure, the growth projected in the County’s and Cities’ General Plan consistent with SCAG’s projected growth will result in substantial pressure to increase development intensity in some areas with or without the MSHCP.

By encouraging intensification of development outside of the reserve areas, and possibly encouraging in-fill development, the MSHCP could have transportation and air quality benefits by encouraging development trends along transportation corridors and possibly reducing traffic congestion and air pollution.

The Proposed Action is growth-accommodating, not growth-inducing. The Proposed Action does not itself propose any growth or development; it merely provides a regional plan to address the biological effects of existing and anticipated future market-driven growth in western Riverside County. Given these circumstances, it may be appropriate to find that the Proposed Action is merely a means of planning for growth, and not a means of accommodating it. However, the Proposed Action will remove impediments to growth and development within the Plan Area outside the reserves. Therefore, out of an abundance of caution, the Lead Agencies have determined that the Proposed Action will have significant indirect impacts on Population, Housing, and Employment. For the same reasons, the Lead Agencies have determined that the Proposed Action will have significant cumulative impacts on Population, Housing, and Employment.

5.1.4 Public Services

Fire Protection

The proposed MSHCP does not propose or authorize any physical development and therefore will not directly result in the deletion, relocation, growth or modification of existing fire protection facilities, roads, or wildland-urban interface areas. Thus, the MSHCP will not have any significant cumulative direct impacts to fire protection. The proposed MSHCP would, however, remove an impediment to growth by authorizing take of Covered Species and allowing development outside of the reserve areas. As development occurs in accordance with regional growth projections, additional fire protection facilities will be needed, but, because the location and timing of future development cannot be predicted, the location and timing of new fire protection facilities is also speculative. Overall, though, the Project’s cumulative impact on fire protection will be beneficial because the establishment of the reserve will allow municipalities to plan land uses with the knowledge of where the likely wildland-urban boundaries will be located, and to plan for fire-safe development (including strategic placing of fire protection facilities). No adverse cumulative effects would occur.

Parks and Recreation

Implementation of the proposed MSHCP would set aside land for conservation use. Recreational use is conditionally compatible with conservation, and would be permitted in many locations throughout the Conservation Areas. The MSHCP would not remove

any existing park or recreational facilities, nor would it prohibit their development in the future. It would protect the quality of natural resources available for recreational use throughout western Riverside County. Thus, no adverse direct or indirect cumulative impacts would occur as a result of the proposed MSHCP.

5.1.5 Transportation

The MSHCP does not authorize or contemplate any physical development. Therefore, implementation of the MSHCP will not have significant cumulative direct impacts on transportation because it will not decrease the level of service or increase traffic on any roadway.

As indicated above, the MSHCP will accommodate projected growth within the Plan Area. However, the MSHCP will not have significant indirect cumulative impacts on transportation. Roadway projects have been planned to reduce traffic-related impacts resulting from the current and future growth projected to occur in western Riverside County. The Circulation Element of the General Plan identifies roadway improvement/construction required to accommodate anticipated traffic volumes, and the construction of planned roadways will reduce impacts resulting from the cumulative growth anticipated to occur within the MSHCP Plan Area. Maintenance activities on existing roadways within public/quasi-public lands, the construction of CETAP corridors, and the construction/improvement of roadways identified in the General Plan Circulation Element within Criteria Areas are Covered Activities under the MSHCP. Thus, although the MSHCP accommodates development in accordance with regional growth projections, it will not result in any cumulatively significant indirect decrease in the level of service or increase in traffic on any roadway. Cumulative impacts related to transportation issues will be less than significant.