Description of Volume 1 - APPENDIX B-05
Line Description
The following describes the methodology and assumptions uses in the Funding Spread Sheet that follows:
| Line Number | |
| 1. | This line contains an estimated percent of the reserve lands to be conserved annually. The percent is higher than would be projected based on the number of residential units to be built annually in the early years. This higher percent is based on the expectation that many property owners will apply to be acquired under the HANS process in the early years. The cost projections and funding assumptions will be revised annually based on actual experience during the life of the plan. |
| 2. | The projected number of acres conserved using the provisions of Section 8.4.1. The percent in line 1 is multiplied by the number of acres (41,000) anticipated to be conserved through the provisions of Section 8.4.1. |
| 3. | This line contains an annual estimate of the percent of acres to be acquired annually during the life of the Plan. Acquisitions are assumed to be weighted toward the early years of the plan. The actual number of acres acquired before plan adoption and annually thereafter will be used to update the model and its assumptions. |
| 4. | The basis of the estimate of the average per acre value is provided in Appendix B-01. |
| 5. | The projected number of acres of land acquired annually is based on the percent from line 3 multiplied times the total acres to be acquired (56,000) using local funding sources. |
| 6. | The total cost of the land acquired annually. Line 4 multiplied by line 5. |
| 7. | The total acres conserved annually as local mitigation. This line is the sum of lines 2 and 5. |
| 8. | The cumulative running total of line 7. |
| 9. | The total acres of existing local conservation lands. See Section 4.2.2. |
| 10. | Projected annual management costs. Line 7 times $55 per acre. See Appendix B-02 for documentation of management costs. |
| 11. | Projected Adaptive Management costs. Line 7 times $30 per acre. No Adaptive Management costs are anticipated in the first 5 years. Once the base line monitoring is completed, Adaptive Management may begin based on the recommendations of the Management Oversight Committee. Adaptive Management costs in year 26 and beyond are increased to $35.00 per acre. |
| 12. | Monitoring Costs - The Monitoring Costs are based on the annual projected costs from the State Department of Fish and Game. See Appendix B-03. |
| 13. | Administrative Costs - The Administrative Costs are based on the budget shown in Appendix B-04. |
| 14. | Management of Existing Lands - The Management Costs for existing locally conserved lands is the additional increment projected at 30% of the full management costs on a per acre basis multiplied by the number of acres of existing lands (55,000). |
| 15. | Total Annual Costs - The sum of the Management and Acquisition Costs for each year. |
| 16. | Costs over the first 25 years of the Plan. The Sum of the Annual costs (line 15) for the first 25 years. |
| 17. | Projected Per Residential Unit Mitigation Fee ($1,500) is shown in the first column. Projected number of units developed over the first 25 years (330,000). Projected number of residential unit permits issued each year. This projection is based on the current level of development activity continuing for the first four years then phasing the numbers so that the total over 25 years reaches the projected number of units to be built over the 25 year period. These numbers will be updated based on actual as a part of the annual update of the financial projections. |
| 18. | Projected Per Acre Mitigation Fee ($4,800) for commercial and industrial is shown in the first column. Projected number of acres of commercial and industrial developed over the first 25 years (9,281 acres) Projected number of C&Is acres developed each year. These numbers will be updated based on actual as a part of the annual update of the financial projections. |
| 19. | Total of Development Fees - Sum of lines 17 and 18. |
| 20. | Total Development Fees of the first 25 years. |
| 21. | Total units projected to use density bonus program annually - This number is calculated by multiplying line 3 times (total projected residential units [line 17] times 10% [a projection of the % of units that might take advantage of the Bonus] times 50% [the anticipated 5% of density bonus fees that would go toward regional conservation] ). |
| 22. | The anticipated Density Bonus Fee - This amount represents a portion of the variable costs of producing a new residential lot. Based on the land value analysis in Appendix 01, the average price of an acre of community development land is approximately $33,000. At a net density of 3 units per acre, the land cost is $10,000 per unit. At 4 units per acre, the land costs is $8,250 per unit. If the net return to the developer is the same in both cases, a developer would have a net advantage of $11,000 - $8,250 or $2,750 per unit or $2,750 *4 = $11,000 per unit. The anticipated Density Bonus Fee is approximately 40% of this advantage. Many factors could impact this calculation for any development project. However, a fee in this range appears to provide an economic incentive in most cases since the actual costs of producing a buildable lot include many more costs than base land values. |
| 23. | The annual revenue generated by the proposed Density Bonus Fee - Line 21 multiplied by line 22. |
| 24. | The total revenue generated over the first 25 years from the Density Bonus Program. |
| 25. | The projected annual revenues from the El Sobrante Landfill. See Appendix 09. |
| 26. | The projected annual revenue from the per mitigation fee charged at all County landfills on in-County waste. See Appendix 09. |
| 27. | The total revenue from County landfills. |
| 28. | Measure “A” Revenue - RCTC committed to making $153 million available to support habitat conservation if the Measure is extended in 2002. Of this amount $121 million will come out of local funds and $32 million will come from State funds programed by the RCTC. A portion of the local amount may come through the Transportation Uniform Mitigation Fee (TUMF) as it is used to backfill the Measure “A” funding program for $’s shifted to local road maintenance under the Measure. The $32 million of State funds are not included in the local funding program as they will be used to meet a portion of the State’s obligation under the MSHCP. The annual allocation is based on the assumption that $’s can be advanced before actual extension of the measure is effective in 2008. |
| 29. | Other infrastructure mitigation - The local funding program assumes that significant new infrastructure, including roads, flood control projects, utilities and new local facilities will be built over the 25 year acquisition period. These projects that receive coverage under the MSHCP will be expected to contribute to the funding the local obligation. Projections for new road capacity was used as a baseline to project potential revenues. Appendix B-08 Includes a projection of potential future costs for transportation projects. An assumption of $% billion of this amount coming from local sources and a 5% mitigation component is the basis of the $250 million estimate spread equally over the 25 year life of the plan. |
| 30. | Total funding from new infrastructure projects. |
| 31. | Total annual revenue - the sum of lines 19, 23, 25, 26, 28 and 29. |
| 32. | Contingency amount - The difference between the projected costs (line 16) and projected revenues ( line 31). |
| 33. | Annual revenue - line 31 |
| 34. | Annual costs - line 15 |
| 35. | The difference between line 33 and 34. Negative if costs in a given year exceed revenues. |
| 36. | Interest earnings - projected interest based on the balance from the previous year. An interest rate of 5% is anticipated based on likely earnings from the County’s pooled investments. |
| 37. | Net difference - line 36 added to line 35. |
| 38. | Residual that could be used to fund an endowment at the end of 25 years. Line 38 from the previous year added to line 37 from the current year. Note that in year 25 the contingency line 32 is assumed to be spent reducing the residual amount. |
| 39. | Interest earnings after year 25. Uses the reduced residual amount after year 25 as the basis for calculating interest as in line 36. |
| 40. | Net different after year 25 - calculated the same as line 37 but using the reduced amount from line 39. |
| 41. | Residual after year 25 - calculated the same as line 38 but using the reduced amount from line 40. |
APPENDIX B-05
| Program Costs | Line No. | Prior to Plan Approval | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 10 | Year 15 | Year 25 | Year 26 and beyond | Year 50 | Year 60 | Year 70 | Year 75 | Totals 25 years | Totals 75 years | |||
| 1 | Conservation using HANS | Projection of % Conserved Annually Referr to Section 8./// of MSHCP | 2% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 0.50% | 100% | 100% | |||||||
| 2 | 41000 | Acres | 820 | 2,870 | 2,870 | 2,050 | 2,050 | 2,050 | 2,050 | 1,640 | 205 | 41,000 | 41,000 | |||||||
| 3 | Local | Projection of % Acquired Annually | 2% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 0.005 | 100% | 100% | |||||||
| 4 | acquisitions | Price per acre | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | $13,100 | |||||||||
| 5 | 56,000 | Acres | 1,120 | 4,480 | 4,480 | 3,360 | 3,920 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 1,680 | 280 | 56,000 | 56,000 | |||||||
| 6 | Sub total Acquisition costs | cost | $14,672,000 | $58,688,000 | $58,688,000 | $44,016,000 | $51,352,000 | $36,680,000 | $36,680,000 | $22,008,000 | $3,668,000 | $733,600,000 | $733,600,000 | |||||||
| 7 | Acres Acquired / conserved Annually | 1,940 | 7,350 | 7,350 | 5,410 | 5,970 | 4,850 | 4,850 | 3,320 | 485 | 97,000 | 97,000 | ||||||||
| 8 | Total Acres New Conservation | 97,000 | Cumulative Total | 9,290 | 16,640 | 22,050 | 28,020 | 32,870 | 57,120 | 76,480 | 97,000 | 97000 | 97000 | 97000 | 97000 | 97000 | ||||
| 9 | Total Acres Existing Conservation | subject to local enhanced management | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | |||||
| Management costs New Conservation | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Management. | $55 | Per acre | $510,950 | $915,200 | $1,212,750 | $1,541,100 | $1,807,850 | $3,141,600 | $4,206,400 | $5,335,000 | $5,335,000 | $5,335,000 | $5,335,000 | $5,335,000 | $5,335,000 | $87,609,500 | $354,359,500 | ||
| 11 | Adaptive Management | $30 | 1 | $1,713,600 | $2,294,400 | $2,910,000 | $3,395,000 | $3,395,000 | $3,395,000 | $3,395,000 | $3,395,000 | $44,520,900 | $214,270,900 | |||||||
| 12 | Monitoring | based on budget | $0 | $1,160,000 | $1,015,000 | $1,015,000 | $1,015,000 | $1,015,000 | $1,400,000 | $1,440,000 | $1,545,000 | $1,545,000 | $1,545,000 | $1,545,000 | $1,545,000 | $1,545,000 | $34,720,000 | $111,970,000 | ||
| 13 | Administration | based on budget | $0 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $30,000,000 | $55,000,000 | ||
| 14 | Management Existing Lands | $17 | (30% of Management cost) | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $935,000 | $23,375,000 | $70,125,000 | ||
| (in addition to existing funding) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sub total Management and Administration Costs | $0 | $3,805,950 | $4,065,200 | $4,362,750 | $4,691,100 | $4,957,850 | $8,390,200 | $10,075,800 | $11,925,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $220,225,400 | $805,725,400 | ||||
| 15 | Total Annual Costs | $14,672,000 | $62,493,950 | $62,753,200 | $48,378,750 | $56,043,100 | $41,637,850 | $45,070,200 | $32,083,800 | $15,593,000 | $11,710,000 | $953,825,400 | $1,539,325,400 | |||||||
| Costs over first 25 years | 16 | $953,825,400 | Total Mngt. costs | $110,984,500 | $424,484,500 | |||||||||||||||
| 22.42% | 20.91% | 20.30% | 17.88% | |||||||||||||||||
| Projected Revenues | 43.33% | 63.64% | 100.00% | New or Continuing | ||||||||||||||||
| Development Fees | Total | Per year | Revenues | |||||||||||||||||
| Per unit Residential | 17 | $1,500 | Units Developed | 330,000 | 15000 | 15000 | 15000 | 15000 | 14000 | 13000 | 13000 | 11000 | 11000 | 11000 | 11000 | 11000 | 11000 | |||
| Per Acre C&I | 18 | $4,800 | Acres C&I | 9,281 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | |||
| New Fee | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Development Fees | $539,550,000 | $24,282,000 | $24,282,000 | $24,282,000 | $24,282,000 | $22,782,000 | $21,282,000 | $21,282,000 | $18,282,000 | $3,634,125 | $3,634,125 | $3,634,125 | $3,634,125 | $3,634,125 | |||||
| Projected Sub Total Revenues | 20 | $539,550,000 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Density Bonus Fees | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Units using Bonus | 1320 | 1320 | 1290 | 1165 | 845 | 825 | 495 | 82.5 | |||||||||||
| Per Unit Fee | 22 | $4,000 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Density Bonus | $66,000,000 | $5,280,000 | $5,280,000 | $5,160,000 | $4,660,000 | $3,380,000 | $3,300,000 | $1,980,000 | $330,000 | ||||||||||
| Fees | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Projected Sub Total Revenues | 24 | $66,000,000 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Landfill Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | El Sobrantee Revenue | $90,056,426 | $1,942,000 | $2,427,500 | $3,034,375 | $3,489,531 | $3,664,008 | $4,039,569 | $4,039,569 | $2,939,569 | ||||||||||
| 26 | Other LandFill Fees | $10,000,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 | |||||
| Projected Sub Total Revenues | 27 | $100,000,000 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Infrastructure Mitigation | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 28 | $121,000,000 | Measure "A" Revenue | $121,000,000 | $50,000,000 | $9,100,000 | $9,020,000 | $4,200,000 | |||||||||||||
| 29 | $250,000,000 | Other Infrastructure | $250,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | ||||
| Projected Sub Total Revenues | 30 | $371,000,000 | Reduce funding from new infrastructure by 75% | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenues over first 25 years | 31 | $1,076,606,426 | Total Annual Revenue | $91,904,000 | $42,389,500 | $42,876,375 | $51,931,531 | $49,246,008 | $43,221,569 | $37,701,569 | $31,951,569 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | ||||
| Contingency (revenues - costs) | 32 | $122,781,026 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Summary | Year 26 | Year 50 | Year 60 | Year 70 | Year 75 | Totals for 75 years | ||||||||||||||
| 33 | Annual Revenue | $1,076,606,426 | $0 | $91,904,000 | $42,389,500 | $42,876,375 | $51,931,531 | $49,246,008 | $43,221,569 | $37,701,569 | $31,951,569 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $6,334,125 | $1,393,312,676 | |||
| 34 | Annual Costs | $953,825,400 | $14,672,000 | $62,493,950 | $62,753,200 | $48,378,750 | $56,043,100 | $41,637,850 | $45,070,200 | $32,083,800 | $15,593,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $11,710,000 | $1,539,325,400 | |||
| Annual amount to Fund Endowment plus interest earnings. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 35 | Diff + or - | $29,410,050 | ($20,363,700) | ($5,502,375) | ($4,111,569) | $7,608,158 | ($1,848,631) | $5,617,769 | $16,358,569 | ($5,375,875) | ($5,375,875) | ($5,375,875) | ($5,375,875) | ($5,375,875) | ($131,340,724) | |||||
| 36 | Interest Earnings @ | 5.00% | $0 | $1,470,503 | $525,843 | $277,016 | $85,288 | $1,745,469 | $3,593,918 | $9,857,234 | $11,168,024 | $24,056,134 | $35,804,049 | $54,940,164 | $68,633,863 | $1,567,275,967 | ||||
| 37 | Net Diff. (revenue - costs +interest earnings) | $29,410,050 | ($18,893,198) | ($4,976,532) | ($3,834,553) | $7,693,446 | ($103,162) | $9,211,686 | $26,215,802 | $5,792,149 | $18,680,259 | $30,428,174 | $49,564,289 | $63,257,988 | $1,435,935,243 | |||||
| 38 | Residual to Endowment fund | $29,410,050 | $10,516,853 | $5,540,320 | $1,705,767 | $9,399,214 | $34,806,216 | $81,090,043 | $223,360,478 | $229,152,627 | $499,802,941 | $746,509,148 | $1,148,367,562 | $1,435,935,243 | ||||||
| 39 | Interest Earnings @ | 5.00% | $5,199,892 | $5,089,218 | $4,908,940 | $4,779,935 | ||||||||||||||
| 40 | Net Diff. (revenue - costs +interest earnings) | ($175,983) | ($286,657) | ($466,935) | ($595,940) | |||||||||||||||
| 41 | Residual to Endowment fund | Less Contingency | $106,371,601 | $103,821,862 | $101,497,695 | $97,711,871 | $95,002,757 | |||||||||||||